Examining the most intriguing bets for New England vs. Kansas City
We have two games in the NFL on Monday night this week, as the New England Patriots travel down to Kansas City to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs at 7:05 p.m. ET on CBS and the Packers vs. Falcons (8:50 p.m., ESPN). This wasn’t a scheduled two games but Cam Newton testing positive for COVID-19 less than 24 hours before the Patriots were set to board their flight for Kansas City obviously caused the league to rethink their originally scheduled kickoff time. Additionally, Chiefs practice squad quarterback Jordan Ta’amu also tested positive for COVID-19, so the league had to be careful with how they decided to move forward. After a period of uncertainty, however, all other tests came back negative, and the game was moved from Sunday afternoon to Monday night.
At one point, this was one of the most highly-anticipated matchups in Week 4, but that hype has certainly lost some steam with Newton being out. NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport reports that Bill Belichick will go with Brian Hoyer as his starter, and that caused the line to move even more in favor of Patrick Mahomes and Co.
Below, we will get you caught up on the most intriguing betting angles to get you locked in before kickoff. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Check out Tyler Sullivan’s picks, player props and more for the “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Packers and Falcons (8:50 p.m., ESPN)
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Patriots at Chiefs (-10.5)
The lookahead before we reached Week 4 had the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites. That line eventually dropped to KC -7, but reopened at KC -10.5 once it was announced Newton had contracted the coronavirus and the game was rescheduled.
The pick: Chiefs -10.5. This could have been the perfect trap game for the Chiefs. Kansas City was on a short week coming off of an emotional “Monday Night Football” victory, and the Patriots have proven they are a feisty opponent. Not only did the Chiefs get an extra day to prepare, but they also won’t have to face Newton. This spread is large, but I still think I’m going to take it.
Naturally, this total went down after Newton tested positive, but just on Monday, this total has dropped a full point to 48.5.
The pick: Under 48.5. The Chiefs have averaged 30.3 points per game while the Patriots average 29 points per game. Obviously, Belichick’s offense is going to look different with Hoyer under center, which has me leaning towards the Under. New England has been through quite a lot emotionally over the past few days.
- O/U 21.5 completions (Over +100)
- O/U 235.5 passing yards
- O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns (Over +145)
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under +155)
- O/U 37.5 pass attempts
I wouldn’t be too eager to throw money on prop bets for a quarterback making his second start in three years, but I’m leaning towards the Under on passing yards. The Chiefs defense held Lamar Jackson to just 97 passing yards last Monday, and Hoyer hasn’t thrown for over 235 yards since a start he made back in 2017. Hoyer also threw three interceptions in the last start he made, so I will probably take the prop saying he will throw at least one interception. The Over/Under 37.5 passing attempts sounds incredibly high, but Hoyer attempted 39 passes in his last start and you have to imagine the Patriots will be forced to throw the ball to keep up with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.
- O/U 26.5 completions
- O/U 297.5 passing yards
- O/U 2.5 passing touchdowns (Over +130)
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over +125)
- O/U 38.5 pass attempts (Over +100)
- O/U 20.5 rushing yards
I’m going to be making two plays on some tasty Overs, as I think Mahomes throws three touchdown passes and throws his first interception of the season. Mahomes’ incredible record in September is all we could talk about over the past few weeks, but the calendar has now changed and we are in October. The fact that we are now in a different month probably isn’t enough to motivate you to put money on this prop, but consider this: Mahomes has thrown three interceptions in two total games against the Patriots. That’s tied for the most picks he has thrown against any one team during his career.
Other props to consider
Clyde Edwards-Helaire total rushing attempts: Over 18.5 (-110). Edwards-Helaire has cleared 18 attempts two times in three games so far this season, and in both cases, it was a situation where the Chiefs were clearly in control of the game. I think it’s more likely than not the Chiefs maintain control of tonight’s game against the Patriots, so Edwards-Helaire is again going to get 20 carries.
Mecole Hardman total receptions: Over 1.5 (-180). Hardman is a very hard start when it comes to fantasy football, but it’s possible we saw a bit of a coming out party for him last Monday. The speedster out of Georgia caught four passes for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and should have recorded two scores. Tyreek Hill is the obvious No. 1 wide receiver and Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the league, but imagine if Hardman could become a legitimate and consistent part of this offense. Stephon Gilmore will probably be traveling with Hill, so maybe Andy Reid experiments a bit with Hardman in this matchup. Either way, two catches shouldn’t be hard to clear.
Julian Edelman total receptions: Over 4.5 (-170). Edelman may be Hoyer’s top wide receiver tonight, as he’s a versatile wideout who can line up and work all over the field. He has recorded at least five receptions in two out of three games this year, and I think I’m going to jump on this prop. As for his total receiving yards prop (O/U 62.5), I may take the Under.